David:

      I did not say Bush should.  I did not say he should not.

      I said he did and he did not; I said acting that way is to act like a
human.

      Some humans of good faith and fine learning would say the
Precautionary Principle ought to be used both for preemptive war and for
global warming, others will say only for one of the two, and still others
will say it ought not be used for neither.

      The Precautionary Principle is a decision tool.  Like all decision
tools it is certain to generate error.  The Precautionary Principle is used
when the preferred error is found by acting "too" cautiously.  The
Precautionary Principle is not used when the preferred error is found by
acting "too" swiftly.  To the swift go the spoils is a truism, but what is
spoiled might not be what was desired.  Such is choice under uncertainty.

      Generically, as the perceived probability of a potential consequence
that is fundamentally unacceptable to (no pun intended) the decider
increases the probability of the decider resorting to the Precautionary
Principle increases.  Increase perception, increased probability, increased
understanding (i.e., belief structure, not necessarily knowledge) of a
potential outcomes, increased understanding of what is fundamental,
increased understanding of what is valued all can trigger an increased use
of the Precautionary Principle.  The former increases need not necessarily
trigger a symmetric increase in the latter use of the Precautionary
Principle; in fact, tipping point behavior is the normal human reaction.

      The first in that list is why oil companies hire PR firms to create
doubt about global warming.  It also is why Gore used a cartoon polar bear.
It also is why the neo-cons painted a ideologically pure picture of Iraq
that was not supported via ordinary uses of intelligence.  It also is why a
field of flags and boots are arrayed every Sunday on a San Diego beach.
Each hopes for a disproportionate impact.

      When, as a matter of law, there is no truth, then all speech rushes
in to form the public consciousness.  Sometimes that decision tool will
serve a nation well, and far less so in other times.  Which times are
these?  Ahh, there is the rub.

Michael

Professor Michael J. O'Hara, J.D., Ph.D.
Finance, Banking, & Law Department        Editor, Journal of Legal
Economics
College of Business Administration        (402) 554 - 2014 voice fax (402)
554 - 3825
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