Birds seem to follow the calendar despite weather conditions.  Wind, temperature, and humidity only seem to augment or degrade the volume of migrants.

That said, weather does appear to merit consideration to maximize a birder's succesa with limited time in the field.  So here are some of my musings.  Totally unscientific and unsubstantiated, these are just personal opinions of mine.

* A moderately cold day or two doesn't appear to have much affect on migration numbers. An extended cold snap of 3-5 days, however, seems to really slow things down to a trickle.

* The first warmer day or two after a prolonged cold snap appears to be the "best" time for birders to enjoy a great volume of migrants.  After two days of warmer temperatures and southerly winds migrants seem to clear out.

So here are my predictions for the week (using weather.unisys.com's GFXs 850mb weather models or about 5,000 feet in elevation--about the elevation used by waterfowl and shorebirds):

Today:

Excellent migration conditions in TX, OK, KS, NE, & SD
Poor migration conditions East of Mississippi River
OHIO: not so great

Tomorrow:

Excellent migration conditons from NM and TX to the Great Lakes, and warmer upper air accross the entire Gulf of Mexico
OHIO: pretty good; above average

Thursday:

Same as Wednesday, but even warmer with highly favorable wind direction from TX to MI
OHIO:  excellent!!

Friday:

Temperature will push close to record highs; favorable conditions continue in all of the East and extend into Southern Canada
OHIO:  excellent!!

Saturday:

Favorable conditions continue East of the Mississippi River and across the Gulf; low pressure forming from TX to MN with colder upper air may create unstable conditions and t-storms
OHIO:  excellent conditions, but how many migrants will remain and how many new will have arrived?

Sunday-Monday:

Cooler upper air and less favorable conditions
OHIO:  if the low pressure tracks North of us birding may be closer to average for this time of year; else, it could be cooler and less an enjoyable than expected

So my take from this for Ohio migration this week:

* Thursday will probably be the best day (a wild guess!)
* Birds I would look for include:

    Snow Goose
    White-fronted Goose
    White Pelican
    American Golden-Plover (maybe in better numbers than normal)
    Ruff
    Yellow-headed Blackbird
    California Gull
    Sage Thrasher (Eastern MA RBA)
    Townsend's Solitaire (NYC RBA)

You may think of some others.  The first warm air will come up through Mexico into Texas and will push northeast on a line from TX to OH--who knows what that may bring.  I'm just curious.

-Greg Miller
Sugarcreek, OH

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