Hi Laura,
 
I wanted to follow-up on your question regarding Kestrels in Ohio.  After the last discussion on the listserv about the status of this species in the state I started looking at some Audubon Christmas Bird Count data to see if I could discern any patterns in population trends.
 
I looked at Kestrel data (birds per party hour) from almost all of the CBCs in Ohio between 1960 (61st count) and 2005 (106th count).  Using this data I was able to come up with a statewide trend for Kestrels in the state.
 
I went through each count in the state and categorized them into one of four categories based on a rough estimation of the predominant habitat type within each count circle.  The four categories were rural, urban, areas undergoing sprawl, or communities that have pretty much remained the same.
 
I then looked at Kestrel trends for each of the four habitat types and compared them against the statewide trend.
 
My rough analysis of CBC data suggests that over-wintering Kestrels are increasing statewide.  However, they're increasing more in rural areas, and slightly more in communities that have not undergone much change.  They seem to be decreasing pretty dramatically in urban areas.  In communities undergoing change (i.e. development) Kestrels seem to be leveling out.
 
Because over-wintering Kestrels seem to be increasing, based on this study, in rural areas irrespective of region of the state or agricultural type (which I did not examine) would potentially suggest that crop type or herbicide use may not be a factor.
 
Again, this was just a rough analysis without any special statistical analysis to determine significance, etc., and it's only looking at birds recorded during the Christmas Bird Count period (mid-December to early January).  I can send copies of the graphs in a microsoft word document to anyone who is interested in seeing them for themselves.
 
Hope this helps answer your question a little,
 
Casey
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

	-----Original Message----- 
	From: Ohio birds on behalf of [log in to unmask] 
	Sent: Fri 1/26/2007 7:15 PM 
	To: [log in to unmask] 
	Cc: 
	Subject: [Ohio-birds] Am. Pipets in Holmes Co. & some thoughts on Kestrel populations
	
	

	Returning from our cottage in Coshocton Co. today, Tim & I drove some  back
	roads in Holmes Co. & were lucky enough to find a flock of 10-20  American
	Pipits feeding on some freshly spread manure.  They were on CR 58  just west of
	the intersection with T122 & T128. (Delorme 60A4--right above  the"N" in
	Mechanic Township).  Also saw a Rough-legged Hawk on T157, just  outside of Charm
	(DeLorme 51D4).
	
	While driving these roads we saw quite a few kestrels, more than we have
	seen in similar habitat in other rural areas of Coshocton, Stark, Summit &
	Portage counties. (The counties we drive most often).  Remembering the  discussions
	we have seen on this list-serve regarding possible kestrel  population
	declines, we wondered what might be different in Holmes Co.   Could the use of
	Round-up Ready crops that has become so popular in recent  years be a factor?  It
	is quite likely that these Round-up treated  seeds are not used as heavly on
	Amish farms.  These treated seeds result in  less weeds, which should mean less
	insects & therefore less food for  kestrels.  Or could the insects that are
	present have toxins in them from  the treated seeds?  Would any of this
	hypotheses result in kestrels either  dying or moving to other areas, such as Holmes
	Co.?  Has anyone else  noticed more kestrels in some counties that have less
	soybean/corn row crop  production where Round-up Ready seed is more prevelant?
	
	Laura Dornan
	Louisville, Stark Co.
	
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